Artificial Intelligence (AI) Megadeals Fuel Venture Capital Rebound, but Hide Deepening Geographic and Sectoral Divides

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New 2025 venture capital (VC) data from WIPO reveals a sharp AI-driven surge. While global VC activity appears to have regained momentum after the boom-and-bust cycle of 2020–2023, the recovery is uneven, driven largely by AI-related megadeals and heavily concentrated in the United States.

Key Takeaways:

  • Global VC deal value jumped by almost 45% year-on-year, climbing from USD 83.5 billion in Q3 2024 to USD 120.7 billion in Q3 2025.
  • Deal numbers fell 3.8%, dropping from 9,731 to 9,358 over the same period.
  • Projections suggest 2025 will close with roughly USD 490 billion in deal value (25% higher than 2024) and 40,000 deals (5% lower than 2024).
  • AI dominates: AI now captures 53% of global VC deal value, up from 32% in Q3 2024.
  • US concentrates funding: Northern America commands nearly 70% of global VC investment in 2025, surging from 57% in 2024 and 48% in 2023.
  • Asia retreats: Asia's share plummets from 30% in 2023 and 22% in 2024 to just 13% of global VC funding.
  • Megadeals drive growth: A handful of large late-stage AI deals propel headline VC figures, including OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic and Mistral AI.

In the Global Innovation Index (GII), VC funding has become a key metric for measuring the vibrancy of innovative start-ups. It reflects both investor confidence and the strength of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The GII Tracker and the GII Innovation Insight Blogs now also report on the global and national VC development on a yearly basis.

VC deal values surge in 2025, while the number of deals continues to shrink

VC deal numbers rose by 47% between Q1 2020 and Q1 2022, increasing from about 11,500 deals to 17,000, an absolute new peak. Since then, they have declined steadily, returning to early-2020 levels two years later (12,000 in Q1 2024) and showing no signs of renewed growth. In Q3 an estimated 9,400 deals were made (see Figure 1), the lowest level since 2020.

Figure 1 Global venture capital deal count, Q1 2020 - Q3 2025

While global venture capital (VC) activity appears to have regained momentum after the sharp boom-and-bust cycle of 2020–2023, the recovery is uneven, driven by AI-related megadeals and concentrated in the United States.